Democrats win Congress; Missouri voters defeat anti-trans measure

Voters weigh in on state ballot initiatives regarding transgender youth

Voters in Washington, Colorado, Nebraska, Arizona, and Missouri considered ballot initiatives regarding transgender youth access to healthcare, sports, and school facilities during the 2026 midterm elections. While states with Republican-controlled legislatures and governorships have previously passed laws restricting transgender girls from girls' sports, no state had done so via a ballot question prior to these elections.

Missouri's anti-transgender ballot initiative was rejected by voters, while measures in Nebraska and Arizona were approved. Arizona voters also rejected a constitutional amendment aimed at Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives.

Republican-aligned groups spend millions on anti-transgender advertisements

Republican-aligned groups raised more than $2.2 billion for the midterm elections, while Democratic-aligned groups raised approximately $1.3 billion.

The Human Rights Campaign reported that Republicans spent $280 million on anti-transgender advertisements during the 2026 election cycle. The Associated Press reported that the Republican party spent $183 million on advertising focused on transgender issues during the same cycle.

AdImpact data indicates that transgender minors are a primary topic in Republican broadcast ads for the Texas Senate race, while transgender sports are a main focus in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District GOP ads. During the 2022 midterm elections, the Human Rights Campaign tracked $50 million in advertisements targeting LGBTQ+ people.

During the 2024 presidential race, $215 million was spent on anti-trans advertisements.

Democratic candidates face personal attacks and deepfaked campaign ads

The President encouraged anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric throughout the campaign, including the practice of accusing Democratic candidates of being transgender. During the midterm cycle, the President specifically targeted Democratic candidates Annie Andrews and James Talarico.

At an October 21 rally in South Carolina, Donald Trump referred to Annie Andrews as "Tranny Annie Andrews" and labelled her a "radical-left lunatic". The President also used the slur "trannie" to describe the South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee in Truth Social posts.

Texas Senate candidate James Talarico faced multiple attacks, including an AI-generated video of him singing about trans children and a deepfaked ad depicting him giving a sermon on LGBTQ+ equality. During an October 27 rally in Texas, Donald Trump accused Talarico of being "obsessed with turning your young boys and girls transgender" and mocked his eating habits and association with drag queens.

Vice President JD Vance also accused Talarico of being gay, using a "no-homo" disclaimer at a rally this month. Texas Republicans further labelled the Senate nominee a "freak" while making insinuations about his sexuality and diet. Fox News host Jesse Watters described Talarico as "effeminate," "pre-pubescent," and a "gay vegan" during a broadcast this spring.

Democratic House candidate Jamie Ager won his race after Republicans used AI to create deepfakes of drag performers at his barn dance. An ad targeting Ager featured a deepfaked barn dance and the slogan “Jamie Ager talks like you and me, but he’s dancing with they/them”. The deepfakes led the performers to file a cease and desist order.

Abdul El-Sayed with Islamophobic attacks, with the President describing him as a "vicious, violent jihadist". Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also uses the slur, recently declaring that the U.S. military will have "no fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals".

Branstetter described the slur as an outdated artifact used to demean trans people and create a spectacle. "When I hear the word ‘tranny,’ what I’m thinking of is bawdy 1990s, 2000s jokes or daytime TV," Branstetter said.

A judge recently ruled against the NAACP in a lawsuit challenging the Justice Department's use of plainclothes poll monitors. The court noted that the monitors would not carry firearms or possess the power to make arrests.

LGBTQ+ candidates and allies win key midterm races

Democratic candidates successfully flipped Republican seats during the midterm elections, with LGBTQ+ candidates contributing to these victories. Becca Balint, who has served as co-chair of the Congressional Equality Caucus since 2023, secured a third term in Congress representing Vermont.

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews ran a competitive race against Darline Graham, the sister of the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. During the campaign, Republican Tim Scott referred to Andrews as "tranny Annie". Elsewhere, Iowa Democrat Josh Turek and South Carolina Democrat Annie Andrews won their respective races after running advertisements that distanced themselves from transgender issues, including opposing trans athletes in sports matching their gender identity.

In Mississippi, with 87% of the vote counted, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith led challenger Scott Colom by slightly over 2%. This margin is narrow in a state that Donald Trump previously won by more than 22 points. During the 2022 election cycle, Nevada Republican attorney general candidate Sigal Chattah tweeted that the country needed fewer "trannies". Chattah, who lost that race, stated that the word "tranny" is part of American culture and not taboo, though she noted she would apologise if the term offended a group.

In Florida, Laura Loomer attempted to stall the campaign of Angie Nixon by alleging that she had been "twerking" at a drag show. An analysis by Future Forward, the Super PAC supporting Kamala Harris, found that the "Kamala is for they/them" advertisement shifted the 2024 presidential race 2.7 percentage points in favour of Donald Trump, according to reporting by The New York Times.

Voters prioritize economy and healthcare over transgender issues

Gallup polling conducted before the 2026 midterms identified the top voter concerns as the economy at 87%, healthcare at 77%, the conflict in Iran at 77%, income inequality at 66%, and gas prices at 62%. Transgender issues did not appear on this list of priorities.

Other events in 2026 included a cyclospora outbreak that affected 20,000 Americans and resulted in two deaths. The price of diesel reached $6 per gallon.

Legislative trends show record-breaking anti-LGBTQ+ bill filings

Legislative activity regarding LGBTQ+ rights has seen significant growth in recent years. By May 2026, 500 anti-LGBTQ+ bills had been proposed in state legislatures. In 2025, more than 125 such bills were passed.

Records for the highest number of anti-LGBTQ+ bills passed in a single year were set in both 2022 and 2023. During the first five months of 2021, legislatures passed the highest number of anti-LGBTQ+ bills ever in one year, which included six laws restricting the participation of trans youth in sports. Following the unpopularity of HB 2, Republican efforts to curb transgender rights expanded into new arenas starting in 2021.

Research highlights the mental health impact of anti-transgender laws

Conversely, youth who have access to gender-affirming clothing, gender-neutral bathrooms, and have their pronouns respected by those they live with exhibit lower rates of suicide attempts.

According to The Trevor Project, transgender and nonbinary youth living in very accepting communities attempt suicide at less than one-third the rate of those living in very unaccepting communities. A report from The Trevor Project identifies more than 1,300 active practitioners of conversion therapy currently operating in the United States.