Trade Desk stock surges 20% on Q3 earnings beat

Analysts weigh 21% undervaluation potential

The Trade Desk stock trades at $14.93, with some analysts questioning if it is 21% undervalued based on potential cash flows. The company is listed as a stock in focus on the Stocktwits platform as of November 10, 2026.

Broader markets saw gains on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.15%, the S&P 500 rising 2.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.74%. As of 11:06 p.m.

Barclays analysts identified T-Mobile US as the best strategic fit for a potential SpaceX acquisition, while labeling Verizon a wild card and AT&T the weakest fit. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.868% and the 30-year yield was 5.266%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell 0.09% amid bearish sentiment.

Company implements 15% workforce reduction

The Trade Desk cut its workforce by 15% as part of a restructuring plan. The layoffs affected 575 positions. The company expects these cuts to generate more than $100 million in gross savings throughout 2027. Operating expenses for the third quarter reached $643 million, a figure that includes $44 million in restructuring charges. Excluding stock-based compensation and those restructuring costs, operating expenses totaled $504 million.

The company authorized a $1 billion share buyback on November 10, 2026. This move increases the previous buyback authorization by $731 million. Net income fell 67% in the third quarter. The company said it aims to moderate expense growth in 2026 and will release a full 2027 operating plan in February.

Q4 revenue guidance exceeds analyst expectations

Both figures exceed analyst expectations. This revenue floor represents a 2.6% increase over third-quarter results. The company experienced a 0.5% revenue decline in the third quarter, marking its first such drop since the 2016 initial public offering.

The firm does not expect the usual seasonal uplift from the third to the fourth quarter, though it anticipates some growth. The $755 million figure is a floor rather than a formal forecast. The company provided no guidance for the first quarter.

Political advertising and regional growth drive revenue

Political advertising and regional performance served as key growth drivers during the third quarter. Trade Desk reported revenue of approximately $736 million, which surpassed the company's August outlook.

Political advertising accounted for a mid-single-digit percentage of revenue in the third quarter and is expected to rise slightly in the fourth quarter. Jeff Green said the election was the company’s largest yet, noting that political spending remains cyclical.

China grew 45 percent in the third quarter, while EMEA revenue increased more than 20 percent over the same nine-month period.

Medical health, personal finance, and travel emerged as the fastest-growing categories in the third quarter. Video accounted for a low 50s percent share of business, while mobile held a high 20s percent share and audio made up 7 percent. Audio showed the strongest year-over-year growth.

Consumer packaged goods and automotive sectors faced pressure during the quarter. Nate Olmstead noted the company does not assume every positive indicator will translate into revenue because some large global advertisers remain under external pressure.

Asian markets, including the Nikkei 225, KOSPI, SSE Composite, and Australian stocks, opened higher on Tuesday.

Historically, the company sees first-quarter revenue decline by approximately 25 percent from the fourth quarter following election years.

Analysts highlight revenue decline excluding one-time items

Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein estimated that Trade Desk’s third-quarter revenue declined by about 8 percent when excluding political spending and one-time partner business. Helfstein noted that fourth-quarter guidance implies a 16 percent decline on the same basis.

Platform-operations expenses increased 23 percent year-over-year. Magnite reported its political contribution reached $12 million in the third quarter and expects it to exceed $40 million for 2026, compared with a $15 million projection.

Nate Olmstead explained that in election years, first-quarter revenue historically declines about 25 percent on an absolute basis from the fourth quarter.

Co-founder Dave Pickles returns to The Trade Desk

Co-founder Dave Pickles returned to the company three years after his exit as chief technology officer. The company launched an overhaul of its data marketplace featuring AI scoring and the pricing of Audience Unlimited.

The Trade Desk is headquartered in Ventura, California, and was founded in 2009.