Motley Fool predicts bear market as investors adjust portfolios

Portfolio allocation for short-term and long-term needs

The Motley Fool advises investors to keep money needed within 10 years in less volatile investments. Funds required within five years should move into low-volatility vehicles such as high-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit, money-market accounts, and bonds.

Long-term capital can remain in stocks to ride out market downturns. Great stocks have historically delivered strong gains despite pullbacks.

Stock exposure for those approaching retirement

Investors approaching retirement should consider moving a larger portion of their portfolio out of stocks. However, they should maintain some stock exposure because they may have many years ahead.

A 60-year-old investor with an expected 25-year lifespan should keep a portion of their nest egg invested in the market.

Historical stock market gains and bear market frequency

Bear markets occur every 3.5 years on average and typically last less than a year, according to Hartford Funds.

The stock market has delivered long-term average annual gains of close to 10%, based on data from Slickcharts.com as of Oct. 28, 2026. These returns include reinvested dividends.

Bitcoin market performance and network mining difficulty

Bitcoin trades at $80,446 as of Wednesday afternoon. This price sits 9.8 percent below the $88,364 closing price recorded on December 31, 2025.

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin fluctuated between a low of $80,153 and a high of $81,636. The asset gained 0.24 percent over the same period, while the total crypto market lost 2.0 percent.

Bitcoin remains 36.2 percent below its all-time high of $126,080. The price increased 0.5 percent, or $417, since reaching $80,029 on October 27. The asset reached a yearly low of $58,566 in late June 2026 and has since risen 37.4 percent. During October, the price declined 3.8 percent from its opening of $83,640. The 30-day high is $86,490, and the 30-day low is $80,029. Between October 31, 2025, and December 31, 2025, the price fell 18.5 percent from $108,409 to $88,364. The current year-on-year comparison stands at minus 9.0 percent.

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 51 points in neutral territory, according to data from alternative.me. This follows readings of 48 and 50 points on the previous two days. Open interest in this contract totals 31,163 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.51 billion. The long-to-short ratio at the exchange is 2.0, meaning two accounts hold long positions for every one holding a short position.

The Bitcoin network expects a mining difficulty adjustment this Thursday, with projections suggesting a 6.7 percent increase. This estimate relies on a computing power of approximately 1,105 exahash per second. If the mining effort per block increases while prices move sideways, miners' margins will fall and their selling pressure will rise.

German tax rules for Bitcoin private disposals

In Germany, gains from selling Bitcoin fall under private disposals as defined by Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. Bitcoin holdings sold after a holding period of more than 12 months are tax-free. Units purchased before October 28, 2025, have already cleared this boundary.

Germany applies an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year for private disposal gains. This threshold is not an allowance; if total gains remain below this amount, no tax is owed. If gains exceed the threshold by even one euro, the entire gain becomes taxable.

Selling a Bitcoin purchased in March 2026 creates a 2,000 euro loss that investors can offset against gains. A sale of Bitcoin purchased in March 2025 yields a loss that cannot be offset because the holding period has elapsed. There are 64 calendar days remaining in the year, which is a critical deadline for German investors regarding tax accounting for private disposals.

Kalshi prediction markets for 2026 midterm elections

This figure is up sharply from earlier levels.

Motley Fool editorial standards and market data sources

Jennifer Saibil authored this article, which was published on November 1, 2026. Selena Maranjian, a contributing personal-finance and investing expert for The Motley Fool, has written multiple books for the company.

Maranjian earned master's degrees from both Brown University and the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. The Motley Fool maintains a disclosure policy. Market data used in this report is powered by Xignite and Polygon.io.