Israel election remains too close to call as Netanyahu’s fate hangs

Record Palestinian-Israeli turnout could decide the race

A record turnout of Palestinian-Israeli voters could prove to be the deciding factor in the race. Strong voter participation occurred in several of the largest Arab-majority towns across Israel on Tuesday.

The Observer reported that this surge in participation may determine the fate of Netanyahu.

The potential rise of these parties is expected to redraw the political landscape of Israel. Palestinian voters possess the potential to determine the future of the nation, according to The New York Times.

Netanyahu is scrambling for votes as citizens turn out in record numbers to decide his political future. The Arab vote is considered a potential deciding factor in Netanyahu's political fate.

Political leaders react to preliminary results

Gadi Eisenkot said on social media that preliminary results indicate "complete distrust in Netanyahu". He claimed that if these results hold, it is a "victory".

Opposition leader Yair Lapid described the results as a "total collapse" for the Netanyahu bloc. Yair Golan of the Democrats party stated the public has "fired the Netanyahu government".

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir expressed hope that the Netanyahu bloc would prevail. He noted that "the night is still young".

International influence from Trump and Vance

Donald Trump said on Wednesday that his endorsement helped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump described the close race as a "big chess match". Netanyahu highlighted the endorsement, which he received only days before the election.

Netanyahu claimed during a television appearance on October 25, 2026, that Trump was prepared to take action to "finally, finally, remove the Iranian threat" if he remained in power. Netanyahu stated he has directed the Israel Defense Forces and the Mossad to "bring down" the Iranian regime.

Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu. Vance stated he is focused on the American midterms and is not getting involved in the Israeli elections. He said, "I'm not anti-endorsing [Netanyahu], I'm not pro-endorsing him".

Netanyahu faces legal and security challenges

Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant regarding alleged crimes linked to the military campaign in Gaza. Critics are calling for an inquiry into his decision-making regarding the October 7, 2023, attack, which many view as a major security failure. That attack resulted in approximately 250 hostages being taken and over 1,200 people killed in Israel.

The Gaza health ministry reports that more than 74,000 people have been killed since October 7, 2023. TIME cannot independently verify these casualty figures, and the data does not differentiate between combatants and civilians.

Yair Golan faced a security incident during a campaign event in Tel Aviv's HaMesila Park. A man carrying a knife approached Golan, leading police to arrest the suspect.

Coalition dynamics and the exclusion of Arab parties

The pro-Netanyahu coalition consists of Likud, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition bloc includes Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, a joint ticket by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan's Democrats.

Forming a government may require the inclusion of fringe parties or Arab parties such as the Joint List and the United Arab List, known as Ra’am. Both the anti-Netanyahu and pro-Netanyahu coalitions have ruled out forming an alliance with Arab-led parties.

Military conscription and domestic policy tensions

This election is the first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the subsequent military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and the West Bank. Public anger is rising over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription. Less than 10% of eligible men enlist despite a shortage of soldiers.

Eisenkot, who joined the emergency war cabinet after the October 7 attack and left in 2024, has pledged to eliminate the de facto military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Eisenkot lost a son in combat and two nephews in Gaza.

Voting day logistics and historical context

Voting took place Tuesday between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. local time after the Central Elections Committee denied a request from Likud to extend the hours. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cast his ballot at a school in Jerusalem shortly after midday with his wife, Sara, and cited high turnout in Arab settlements. Israeli head of state Isaac Herzog and his wife voted at a polling station in Rehavia and called the election a "holiday for democracy".

Arab citizens comprise approximately 20% of the Israeli population. They experience higher unemployment and poverty rates, as well as fewer government services. Voter turnout among Arab-Israelis has historically been low due to feelings of disappointment and discrimination.

Palestinian citizens of Israel can vote in the election but do not expect significant change. Many are weighing disillusionment against fear during the voting process. Reports indicate that illegal settlers and Israeli forces are targeting the Palestinian olive harvest in the occupied West Bank.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a long-standing political and military struggle over self-determination and land, involving issues such as borders, security, Jerusalem, settlements, refugees and the occupation of the Gaza Strip and West Bank. There are aspects of the Israeli election that will remain unchanged regardless of the outcome.