Xi Jinping opens plenum to tighten Communist Party discipline

Plenum aims to align leadership with Xi's political priorities

Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at London’s Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, said the plenum is a chance to ensure new generations rising through the ranks share Xi’s assessment of the opportunities and risks China faces.

Neil Thomas said the plenum should prepare the ground for Xi’s fourth term, reinforce expectations of policy continuity, and potentially introduce new ideological language to reinforce Xi’s authority.

Anti-graft drive expands to target formalism and compliance

Xi’s anti-graft drive has been a feature of his rule since 2012, with purges of officials used to consolidate power. The focus has expanded to include punishing officials for "formalism" and "bureaucratism," such as dereliction of duty, inaction, and reckless acts.

Ruby Osman stated that disciplinary crackdowns are now aimed at institutional longevity, noting, "It’s less about purging elite rivals and more about building a disciplined system that can sustain Xi’s political priorities across leadership cycles".

Mingda Qiu, senior analyst of Eurasia Group’s China practice, said the message is that the anti-corruption campaign is not winding down. He added that officials are tested for loyalty, compliance, and action.

In a January meeting, Xi noted that inspections and audits found problems such as failures to comply and improper execution, according to an October article in the Qiushi Journal.

Xi warned against "two-faced people" who profess loyalty while privately defying orders. He stated, "During leadership transitions, we must keep our eyes sharp, elevate good cadres who are truly loyal and reliable, consistent in word and deed, and willing to take responsibility, and never allow 'two-faced people' or those driven by self-interest to slip through".

Record low turnout amid ongoing central committee purges

The central committee faces a potential record low turnout this week, with analysts estimating attendance could fall below 80%. This would mark the lowest participation level since 1976. The committee began its term in 2022 with more than 370 full and alternate members.

Neil Thomas, Lobsang Tsering, and Shengyu Wang reported that 42 out of 44 officials affiliated with the military who were elected as full central committee members in 2022 have been purged or disappeared.

Preparation for 2027 leadership transition and policy continuity

The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is the supreme supervisory organ of the Chinese Communist Party. It defends the party constitution, enforces inner-party regulations, coordinates anti-corruption work, and safeguards the core position of Xi Jinping.

Neil Thomas expects the plenum to result in tighter scrutiny of public spending and major projects. He also anticipates increased use of technology to uncover corruption and tougher consequences for officials who fail to deliver on the priorities set by Xi.

Xi removed presidential term limits in 2018 and is widely expected to be confirmed as party leader for his fourth term in the fall of 2027. Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said new personnel appointments are possible during this process. Tsang added that Xi may wait until the Communist Party Congress next year to anoint his picks, who would be loyalists.