Democrats lead polls as 2026 midterms approach

President Trump faces low approval amid unified control

President Donald Trump secured a second term in 2024, during which the Republican Party maintained control of both the House and the Senate. In 36 out of 41 elections since the era of Abraham Lincoln, the party of the sitting president has historically seen a reduction in House seats.

Incumbent presidents lose an average of four Senate seats during midterms, such as the nine seats lost by Barack Obama in 2014. Only five times in 41 midterms since the 1860s—specifically 1894, 1918, 1946, 1994, and 2006—has a president in office with unified control of Congress seen their party lose both chambers.

President Trump currently faces low approval ratings, which are attributed to high gas prices, aggressive immigration enforcement, tariffs, the co-opting of the Justice Department, and an unpopular war in Iran. An AP-NORC poll conducted in October 2026 found that 73 per cent of American adults disapproved of his handling of the economy, his lowest rating across two presidencies.

Significant misses have primarily occurred during elections where Donald Trump was on the ballot.

An AAPOR task force report concluded that 2024 election polls were the most accurate state polling for a presidential cycle since 1944. Polls adjust for lower midterm turnout by using likely voter models that measure a respondent's interest and likelihood of voting.

In New Jersey's 7th District, Donald Trump won narrowly in 2024, but Mikie Sherrill won the district during the 2025 governor's race. In the Texas Senate race, Republican candidate Ken Paxton faces different voter support than his primary opponent, John Cornyn.

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed faces different voter support than his primary opponent, Haley Stevens, in the Michigan Senate race. During October, eight polls were conducted for the Michigan Senate race, while only two polls were conducted for the California governor's race.

Michael Dimock, president of the Pew Research Center, provided analysis originally published in The Hill on 14 October 2026.

Polling experts warn against generic ballot reliance

Democratic candidates currently hold a polling edge, though experts warn of potential warning signs regarding the extent of these gains. Organizations including Focaldata, Marist, and YouGov report that generic Democratic candidates are currently polling 8 or 9 points ahead.

Andy Crosby advises against using generic party polls to predict election outcomes. He explains that voters select specific candidates rather than generic party platforms. National generic ballot polls reflect the ideological mood of the country but do not directly translate into a specific seat count for Congress.

A previous NPR/PBS/Marist poll conducted from 31 October to 2 November 2024 showed a statistical dead heat, with 48% support for both Democratic and Republican candidates. Today, Democratic Senate candidates remain competitive in historically Republican states, including Mississippi, Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina.

A September Los Angeles Times/Berkeley IGS survey regarding the California Governor's race indicated that Democrat Xavier Becerra held a 25-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton, capturing 58% support compared to 33%. A Harvard Institute of Politics poll carried out between 30 September and 7 October 2026 found that just 9% of voters between 18-29 think the nation is moving in the right direction, with this demographic showing a strong preference for the Democratic Party.

Polling faces unprecedented challenges, though it remains effective at measuring public attitudes and beliefs. The industry has seen an increase in low-cost opt-in surveys, while high-quality polling has become more expensive and less frequent. Declining response rates have made polling increasingly expensive, resulting in few public polls for House races unless the contest is highly competitive.

Individual congressional districts are frequently polled by various organizations, including Emerson College and Siena, the latter of which collaborates with The New York Times. Pollsters refine their methodology by using voter file samples and weighting results based on education and recalled past voting behaviour. Andy Crosby advises relying on polls that are part of the American Association for Public Opinion Transparency Initiative, provide transparent methodology, and employ probability-based sampling.

Opt-in polls are increasingly compromised by sophisticated bogus respondents, such as AI-enabled bot farms or people seeking financial gain, which particularly affects data regarding Hispanic adults and young people. New challenges in 2026 include the emergence of synthetic surveys that use AI to model public opinion without surveying humans, as well as the sharing of entirely fabricated polls without disclosure. Wedgewood Polls recently admitted that the majority of its surveys were fabricated after the numbers had already been included in news coverage and polling averages.

Predicting voter turnout in midterms and primaries is inherently difficult because respondents often report their aspirations rather than their actual behaviour. While AI and data centres have become significant topics of public dialogue, their impact on the election is currently dependent on local conditions rather than party polarisation.

Economic concerns drive 'double hater' voter bloc

Economic challenges remain the primary focus for voters as the midterm elections approach, with 31 percent of Americans identifying them as the most important issue facing the country. A further 30 percent cite government and poor leadership, while 13 percent point to foreign policy, war, or national security. Among all registered voters, 47 percent state that the cost of living is the most important factor determining their vote.

The number of registered voters classified as double haters, those who dislike both major political parties, has risen to 21 percent, up from 13 percent in 2022 and 12 percent in 2024. Figures show that 61 percent of this demographic are male, 58 percent are younger than 44, 92 percent think the nation is moving in the wrong direction, and 84 percent perceive the economy as weak.

Public sentiment regarding the direction of the country has shifted, with 62.9 percent of United States adults now believing the country is on the wrong track, an increase of nearly 12 percentage points compared to 18 months ago. Within the Republican party, 29 percent of likely voters believe the economy is better than it was a year ago, a decline from 72 percent in January 2026.

Turnout uncertainty and election integrity concerns

Predicting voter turnout for the 2026 general election is complicated by a range of factors, including midcycle redistricting, changing election laws, uncertainty regarding mail-in ballots, and concerns about voter intimidation. The ballot features the lowest number of incumbents since 1992.

Public confidence in the honesty of United States elections remains low, with 51 percent of Americans expressing a lack of confidence. Gallup reports that for the first time, trust in election integrity is higher among those who disapprove of national leaders than among those who approve.

Shifting support within the Republican base

Support within the Republican base has undergone a shift, with 34 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters identifying primarily as supporters of Donald Trump in October 2026, a decline from 63 percent in February 2025. Among young Republicans who supported Donald Trump in 2024, only 31 percent identify as part of the MAGA movement.

Democratic voters show a distinct motivation for the upcoming polls. According to data from 1 November 2026, 46 percent of self-identified Democrats plan to vote mainly to oppose Donald Trump, while 37 percent intend to vote primarily to support a local candidate.

Counting procedures and ranked-choice mechanics

Counting procedures in close races may take several days or weeks, as candidates who lead early in the count may not ultimately win due to the impact of mail-in ballots. In Alaska, officials accept ballots mailed from outside the United States for up to 15 days after Election Day.

Ranked-choice voting rules require a candidate to secure more than 50 percent of first-choice votes to win. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are reallocated to second choices until a winner is found.