Yishai Challenges Haredi Consensus in Draft Shock

The Draft Crisis Fracturing Netanyahu's Coalition

The backdrop to Yishai's political manoeuvring is a profound constitutional and social crisis regarding military service.

For decades, ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students have enjoyed blanket exemptions from the draft, a arrangement that has increasingly rankled with the secular majority and those who serve in the military.

However, the political landscape changed irrevocably after the High Court of Justice ruled in June that the state could no longer fund students who do not enlist, striking down the government's attempts to bypass the issue with temporary measures.

This ruling has placed the Netanyahu government in an impossible position: angering its secular partners by seeking to legislate new exemptions, or infuriating its Haredi partners by allowing the draft to proceed.

The Finance Ministry has already begun the process of halting stipends to tens of thousands of yeshiva students, a move that has sparked protests in Haredi neighbourhoods like Mea Shearim and Bnei Brak.

• The Supreme Court ruling was delivered by a majority of 8 to 1 justices.
• Approximately 63,000 Haredi men are currently eligible for draft but have not enlisted.
• The coalition has until the end of the Knesset's summer session to pass a new law.

Against this volatile backdrop, Yishai's 'Haredi Public' party offers a third way: a Haredi voice that accepts the reality of the draft and seeks to manage the integration of the community into the military and workforce.

Experts point out that this message resonates with a segment of the Haredi public that feels abandoned by the leadership of Deri and Yaakov Litzman of United Torah Judaism.

'The narrative that the Haredi public is a monolith opposed to any form of service is outdated,' said Dr. Chen Friedberg, a political scientist at Haifa University, speaking to sources.

'There is a silent majority within the community that recognises the need for contribution, especially after the trauma of October 7.'

The Netanyahu government, reliant on the votes of Shas and UTJ for its survival, has been trying to push a new draft law that would formalise exemptions, but this bill faces fierce opposition from the opposition and centrist parties.

Yishai's entry into the fray complicates this arithmetic, potentially offering a lifeline to Netanyahu if he needs to replace the Haredi parties, or alternatively, splitting the right-wing vote and leading to the government's collapse.

Aryeh Deri and the Battle for Shas

The return of Eli Yishai is inextricably linked to his tumultuous relationship with Aryeh Deri, the current chairman of Shas.

The two men have a history that reads like a political thriller, marked by fierce rivalry, legal troubles, and a struggle for the soul of the Sephardic Haredi community.

Yishai originally led Shas following the death of its spiritual founder, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, in 2013.

However, Deri, who had previously served a prison sentence for corruption, staged a comeback and wrested control of the party from Yishai in 2014, forcing Yishai out.

Since then, Yishai has made several attempts to re-enter the Knesset, most notably with the 'Yachad' party in 2015, which narrowly missed the electoral threshold, a failure that has haunted his political career.

Now, Deri finds himself in a precarious position.

In January 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that Deri could not serve as a minister due to his previous tax evasion conviction, a decision that forced Netanyahu to fire him from the cabinet despite Deri's central role in coalition negotiations.

Although Deri remains the influential head of Shas, his legal exclusion from government has weakened his standing, creating an opening that Yishai is eager to exploit.

• Aryeh Deri has led Shas for over 20 years, barring periods of legal disqualification.
• Shas currently holds 11 seats in the Knesset, making it a key coalition partner.
• Rabbi Ovadia Yosef founded Shas in 1984 to represent Sephardic religious interests.

The internal dynamics of Shas are complex, balancing the demands of the rabbis with the needs of the working-class Sephardic constituency.

Yishai is positioning himself as the defender of the 'common Haredi' against the entrenched party establishment.

His rhetoric focuses on the economic hardships faced by Haredi families who do not benefit from the political deals struck by party leaders.

'Deri is busy protecting his own interests, while the people are suffering,' a source close to Yishai's campaign said.

This populist message could resonate with voters who feel that the current leadership has become disconnected from the street.

However, Deri remains a formidable operator with deep ties to the rabbinic leadership and an efficient party machine.

Political insiders note that Deri will likely mobilise the party's vast resources to discredit Yishai, painting him as a traitor who is facilitating the destruction of the Torah world by supporting the draft.

The coming weeks will likely see a bitter war of words between the two factions, with both sides claiming the mantle of Rabbi Ovadia's legacy.

The 'Haredi Public' Platform: Integration vs Isolation

The 'Haredi Public' party, which Yishai is set to lead, is not merely a vehicle for his personal ambition; it represents a distinct ideological shift within the sector.

While traditional Haredi parties view military service as an existential threat to their way of life, the new party argues that integration is inevitable and necessary for the community's survival.

The party's platform calls for a 'comprehensive programme' to integrate Haredim into the IDF and the civilian workforce without compromising their religious lifestyle.

This includes the creation of special Haredi units within the army, where dietary laws and Sabbath observance are strictly maintained, as well as vocational training programmes for those leaving the yeshivas.

The proposal draws on models that have already seen limited success, such as the Netzah Yehuda battalion and the Shahar programme.

• Approximately 4,000 Haredim currently serve in the IDF in various capacities.
• Unemployment in the Haredi sector stands at roughly 45% for men, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics.
• The 'Haredi Public' party advocates for increased state funding for Haredi schools that teach core curriculum subjects.

Supporters of the initiative argue that the current strategy of total resistance is doomed to fail in the face of an increasingly impatient Israeli public and a determined judiciary.

They point to the growing anger in Israel over the inequality of the burden, particularly as reservists are being called up for extended duty during the ongoing conflict.

'We cannot continue to live in a bubble,' said Moshe, a 32-year-old Haredi father of three from Jerusalem, who expressed support for Yishai's move.

'My secular neighbours serve and die. We need to be part of this state, not just take from it.'

Critics, however, warn that Yishai's approach is a slippery slope that could lead to the assimilation of the Haredi community.

The rabbinic leadership of Shas and UTJ has issued harsh statements condemning the party, labelling it a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' that seeks to dismantle the Torah world.

They argue that the army is an environment that is inherently hostile to religious observance and that sending yeshiva students there will lead to a mass exodus from religion.

This battle over the draft is therefore not just about politics, but about the future identity of Haredi society in Israel.

Electoral Arithmetic: Can Yishai Cross the Threshold?

The most immediate question facing Yishai and his allies is whether they can clear the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.

In Israel's proportional representation system, failing to reach the threshold means the votes for that party are discarded, a result that can alter the balance of power significantly.

In the 2015 election, Yishai's 'Yachad' party fell just short of the threshold, a result that many analysts believe cost the right-wing bloc a majority and facilitated the rise of the centrist government led by Isaac Herzog.

The memory of that failure looms large, and Yishai is acutely aware that he must avoid a repeat performance.

Current polling data suggests a fragmented landscape.

While Shas is projected to maintain its strength, hovering around 10 to 12 seats, there is a small but measurable percentage of the Haredi electorate—estimated between 3% and 5%—that is dissatisfied with the current leadership and open to a pro-draft message.

• The electoral threshold was raised from 2% to 3.25% in 2014.
• In the 2022 election, the Religious Zionist Party won 14 seats by consolidating the religious right.
• Analysts predict a high voter turnout in the Haredi sector if the draft issue remains unresolved.

If Yishai can capture this disaffected vote, he could enter the Knesset with 3 to 4 seats.

However, the risk is that he draws votes away from Shas without gaining enough seats to pass the threshold, effectively handing those votes to the centre-left or Arab parties.

This scenario is the nightmare of the right-wing camp.

To mitigate this risk, Yishai may seek to run as part of a joint list with other small factions, such as the Religious Zionist Party or elements of the secular right, though ideological differences could make such an alliance difficult.

The timing of the election is also a crucial factor.

If the government collapses in the coming months, as many predict, the election campaign will be dominated by the security situation and the draft issue.

This environment could favour Yishai, allowing him to present his party as the only one offering a pragmatic solution to the conscription crisis.

Conversely, if Netanyahu manages to stabilise the coalition and pass a draft law that satisfies the Haredi parties, Yishai's platform may lose its urgency.

The former Interior Minister is therefore walking a tightrope, betting everything on the continued failure of the coalition to resolve the issue that threatens to tear Israeli society apart.

Netanyahu's Dilemma and the Future of the Right

For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Yishai's potential return presents a complex strategic headache.

Netanyahu has long relied on the Haredi parties as a stabilising anchor for his governments, often granting them generous budgets and autonomy over religious affairs in exchange for their loyalty.

The rise of a pro-draft Haredi party disrupts this comfortable arrangement.

On one hand, a party like 'Haredi Public' could theoretically provide Netanyahu with a coalition partner that is more aligned with the secular and