Sensex, Nifty face muted start as crude oil hits $114 (26 Oct)

Crude oil surge and geopolitical impact

Crude oil prices climbed above US$114 per barrel, marking a 1.1 percent increase and reaching a five-month high due to fears of Middle East supply disruptions and concerns over Saudi oil facilities. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said that Indian markets are likely to remain weak as these prices fuel inflation concerns. He added that the market faces pressure from heightened geopolitical tensions.

Late last week, crude oil prices hit near six-month highs before declining. Brent crude futures fell 1.18 percent to $115.34 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.48 percent to $101.74 a barrel.

In an earlier report from October 20, 2026, Dow Futures gained 0.22 percent while Brent Crude surged above $111. That report also noted that Nvidia and AI stocks faced pressure ahead of key earnings.

Previous session performance and technical indicators

The BSE Sensex plunged 2.15% last week, while the Nifty 50 slipped 2.36%. In the previous trading session, the Nifty 50 declined 0.39% to close at 22,600. The Sensex fell 0.17% to settle at 73,123. According to BSE data, the Sensex fell 125.56 points from its previous close of 73,249.39.

Metal, Realty, and PSU Bank stocks were major laggards in the previous session. Consumption and IT stocks showed relative resilience with smaller losses.

Bajaj Broking Research reported that the Nifty extended its corrective decline for the fourth consecutive session. The index formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow while registering lower highs and lower lows. The Nifty reached an intraday low of 22,372 before recovering to close at 22,600. It has retraced approximately 80% of its previous six-session advance from 22,180 to 23,175.

The Bank Nifty index closed around 54,300 after extending its corrective decline for the fourth consecutive session. It formed a sizeable bearish candle during this period.

Support and resistance levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty

Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking, said that weakness below the previous week's low of 22,372 will open downside towards the current month's low of 22,180. He added that the index holding above the 22,372 level will lead to consolidation in the range of 22,370 to 22,850.

For Monday's session, 22,372 is the support level to watch. The index faces immediate resistance at 22,850, supported by the 20-day exponential moving average, and a major hurdle at 23,175.

Regarding the Bank Nifty, Pabitro Mukherjee said that weakness below 54,000 will open further downside towards 53,500 and 53,100. He noted the index has key short-term support at 53,500 to 53,000, which is the confluence of trendline support and key retracement levels. He also said that only a move above 55,150 will signal a pullback towards 56,000.

For Monday, the Bank Nifty has a crucial support level at 54,000. Further downside levels are 53,500 and 53,100. A potential recovery signal exists if the index moves above 55,150 towards 56,000.

Foreign portfolio investor outflows

Foreign Portfolio Investors have sold Indian stocks worth ₹48,056 crore in October so far. These outflows follow net selling of ₹35,861 crore in September.

Total FPI outflows for 2026 have now surpassed ₹3 lakh crore. Specifically, the year-to-date outflows stand at ₹3,08,358 crore.

Global market cues and central bank focus

Investors this week will focus on interest rate decisions from global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Asian markets traded mixed on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 0.2% and the Topix gaining 0.60%. South Korea's Kospi declined 0.3% and the Kosdaq Index dropped 1.95%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening.

US markets closed lower on the previous session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16. The S&P 500 declined 39.75 points, or 0.52%, to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 53.52 points, or 0.21%, to 25,955.34.

For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% and the Nasdaq fell 0.7%. The Dow rose 0.4% during the same period, marking its third straight weekly gain.

Commodity market trends

Gold prices steadied at $3,993.20 an ounce, falling 0.1% after experiencing their biggest weekly drop since June. This decline follows a drop of more than 4% last week, which brought prices to their lowest level since July.

Silver prices rose 0.5% to $54.12 an ounce. This follows a 5.4% decline in silver prices last week.