Lula secures historic fourth term as Brazil's president

Political comeback from prison to presidency

Lula’s victory marks a historic comeback following his previous imprisonment on corruption charges. He was released in 2019 and later had his convictions annulled.

Upon returning to power in 2023, Lula stated that he had inherited a country "destroyed" by former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Runoff results against Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party lost the runoff election after winning the first round on 4 October. Eduardo Bolsonaro, also representing the Liberal Party, campaigned on a promise to shift toward more conservative economic policies.

No candidate who finished second in the first round had successfully reversed the result in a runoff since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989.

Campaign focus on social welfare and economic recovery

Lula’s campaign focused on social welfare programs, economic recovery, and a pledge to continue the Amazon protection policies of his previous administrations. Analysts cited his strong support among low-income voters and his promise to maintain the Bolsa Família program as key factors in his electoral success.

The president implemented above-inflation increases to the minimum wage and tax reforms that reduced the burden on lower-middle-income Brazilians while increasing it for the wealthiest. During the campaign, Lula successfully secured congressional approval for a shorter standard workweek.

Institutional challenges and political pressure

Creomar de Souza, founder and CEO of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, said Lula enters his term in an environment of institutional fragility. De Souza added that while Lula may think he has been given a free pass, he must build a coalition to govern effectively.

The victory sends a message to the radical right, which must now rethink how it operates. Lula faces significant pressure from unwieldy lawmakers, a powerful agro-business lobby, and a heavily politicised Supreme Court.

Lula has pledged to pursue changes to the judicial system. This follows the collapse of Banco Master, which revealed a web of alleged fraud, bribes, and institutional ties to senior Supreme Court figures.

Sovereignty and international relations

Lula encountered a complex domestic situation and a hostile international environment, characterized by a more aggressive United States concerned about China's expanding regional presence. Sovereignty was a defining theme of his campaign, with the president insisting that Brazil is too big to fit in anyone's backyard in response to United States attempts to extend influence across Latin America.

Despite Donald Trump's tariff threats and bullying, Lula and Trump held an amicable meeting at the 2025 United Nations General Assembly. Following this, Trump invited Lula to the White House, where he praised the president's intelligence and described him as a good man.

Economic outlook and critical minerals strategy

Brazil faces economic headwinds as personal loan defaults reach their highest level in two decades. While unemployment fell to 5.4 per cent in July during Lula’s third term, and the economy grew faster than that of the United States, current public approval ratings have hit a historic low. Many Brazilians have not felt economic gains amid a cost-of-living crisis driven by rising inflation.

Lula has pledged to implement a fiscal adjustment without providing details, maintaining that he will not sacrifice his social agenda to satisfy financial market pressures. To address household finances, he implemented measures including an increase in family benefits under the Bolsa Familia programme, a ban on online gambling, a plan to refinance consumer debt, and the distribution of weight-loss shots.

Domestic priorities include establishing rules for the critical minerals industry. Brazil holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth elements after China.

Legacy and voter sentiment

Lula ended his second consecutive term in 2010 with an 83 per cent approval rating. Barack Obama once referred to him as the most popular politician on Earth.

While the regional trend known as the Pink Tide of the late 1990s and early 2000s has reversed, Brazil and Mexico remain the current leftist holdouts in the region. Antonio Avelino, a 73-year-old taxi driver, predicted a week before the election that the Northeast would save the country again.

Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and former press secretary to ex-President Dilma Rousseff, stated that the election was a "repudiation of the alternative". Traumann added, "This was an election of rejection".

Lula addressed supporters in Sao Paulo following the results. He said, "This election taught me many lessons" and "I can say we'll change the way we govern this country".

OAS confirms election legitimacy

International observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) declared the election free, fair, and transparent. The group confirmed the legitimacy of Lula’s fourth-term victory.