Bitcoin drops below $75,000 as ETF outflows hit $1.28 billion (10 Nov)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs record $1.28 billion in weekly outflows

BlackRock’s IBIT led these outflows with $213.2 million, marking seven consecutive sessions of redemptions.

Senator Elizabeth Warren to lead Senate Banking Committee

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is set to become the chair of the Senate Banking Committee in January following the Democratic victory in the Senate during last week's midterm elections. This shift in leadership has raised concerns regarding stricter crypto regulation and anti-money laundering rules, as the regulatory environment for cryptocurrency becomes increasingly negative. Senator Warren is reportedly considering a bid for a more senior position in Senate Democratic leadership, potentially the No. 3 role.

An aide to Senator Warren stated that "Big Tech CEOs, Administration officials, Trump family crypto businesses, Wall Street executives, and giant corporations should preserve their documents and prepare to answer tough questions" as the committee prepares for an oversight campaign. She also intends to address the "Wild West-style lack of oversight" in prediction markets and investigate financial stability risks, including a possible AI bubble.

She has argued that the approval of national trust charters for crypto companies like Ripple and Coinbase by federal regulators is illegal. Senator Warren has stated that the CFTC has been "steamrolled" by the crypto and prediction market firms it is tasked with overseeing. She also questioned Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick regarding a loan from Tether to a trust connected to his children.

Senator Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) requested that the Labor Department abandon plans that would simplify holding cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans. The Clarity Act, which was the crypto industry's main legislative priority, failed to pass the Senate this year with Senator Warren as a primary opponent. Democrats intend to introduce a broader crypto market structure bill once they assume control of Congress.

A White House spokesperson remarked that while President Trump is willing to work with others, "sham investigations and radical left policies" would hinder such cooperation. Current Senate Banking Committee chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) has claimed that crypto remains in "the wild, wild West" due to a lack of market structure rules.

Market participants monitor U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations

Market participants are awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to gauge Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Analysts are also monitoring U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

Data scheduled for release on Tuesday is expected to show a 3.9% year-on-year increase for October, up from 3.7% in September, while core CPI is projected to rise to 2.8% from 2.6%.

Following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report on Friday, market expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in December stand at 80%.

Broader crypto market performance and altcoin sentiment

The CoinMarketCap “Altcoin Season” index is currently at 40/100, which has fallen significantly from its level of 62/100 recorded one month ago.

Ripple (XRP) traded below $1.09 on Monday after a 10% decline last week, with XRP spot ETFs recording $529,510 in net outflows during the same period. Pi Network tokens hit a record low on Monday, falling over 5% following a 6% decline the previous day, while Open Interest dropped by more than 20% over the week.

Nvidia shares decline amid corporate investigations

Nvidia shares fell by as much as 8% after the company's board initiated an independent investigation into allegations that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a Chinese intelligence operation. The shares also fell 5% amid reports of an affair between CEO Jensen Huang and an alleged Chinese spy, alongside broader concerns regarding the AI trade.

Senator Warren plans to continue working with Republican China hawks to limit advanced AI chip exports, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang identified as a key oversight target.

Crypto futures and options market data

Crypto futures liquidations fell 84% to $184 million over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk. Trading volume also decreased 8.55% to $165.2 billion.

Open interest in crypto futures increased 0.59% to $128.4 billion. The taker long/short volume ratio currently stands at 49.69% buying to 50.31% selling.

Annualized funding remains moderately positive for major coins like Bitcoin and Ether, while the token GRAM shows funding at approximately -60%. Crypto funding has compressed to approximately 4%.

In Bitcoin options, the one-week 25-delta skew is about 10% with at-the-money implied volatility of approximately 38%. Ether options show a one-week skew of about 11% and implied volatility ranging from 53% to 54%.

Diversified RWA stablecoins are maintaining a yield of 5-7% derived from real credit. The project GENIUS is pushing yield off-chain with an expected Total Addressable Market of $4 billion within three years.

Avalanche and new token listings

Hyperliquid (HYPE) began trading on South Korea’s Upbit exchange at 06:00 UTC today at around $74.50, down 0.9% since midnight UTC.

Technical outlook and market correlation

Bitcoin is trading within a descending channel and has fallen below its 50 and 200 EMAs. Downside support levels are identified at $72,500, $70,000, and $64,000.

Selling pressure has caused recent Bitcoin buyers to incur losses, according to CoinDesk. The crypto market failed to participate in the rebound seen in broader financial markets, particularly tech stocks, on Friday.

Bitcoin maintains a strong positive correlation with the Nasdaq 100, with a 30-day rolling correlation coefficient of 0.80. This follows a 5.5% plunge in the Nasdaq on Thursday.

Following the US midterm elections, market sentiment shifted toward risk aversion, resulting in a 5% rebound for Gold and a 4% loss for Bitcoin over the past week. FXStreet reported that anticipation of a less favorable approach from a Democratic Congress has worsened sentiment toward crypto and contributed to institutional outflows.