ASX futures slip as US tech sell‑off hits market ahead of RBA decision (2 Nov)
- SPI futures opened slightly in the red (F1).
- E‑mini S&P 500 futures fell about 1.8% (F2).
- 4DMedical shares plunged 25.6% after AGM news (F5).
- RBA cash rate sits at 4.6% ahead of a possible hike on 5 Nov (F8).
- Retail sales data show weakening consumer demand (F25).
On 1 November 2026, ASX SPI futures were slightly in the red ahead of the market open, with the index approaching the 9,000 level despite a sharp retail sell‑off. E‑mini S&P 500 futures were down about 1.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell roughly 3.5%. VIX futures were up more than 12%, indicating a shift toward risk aversion.
Sharp drops in 4DMedical, IperionX and Coles after company‑specific news
IperionX (ASX:IPX) dropped 12.24% after its September quarterly report detailed a titanium‑powder scale‑up and funding initiatives. BMC Minerals (ASX:BMC) fell 6.59% after a large shareholder block trade and a quarterly spending update. Ampol (ASX:ALD) slipped 3.75%. Australia’s Q3 producer‑price index consensus was expected at 1% quarter‑on‑quarter, after a previous 1.3% reading. The report includes standard disclosures from StoneX Financial Pte. For Singapore recipients who are not accredited, expert, or institutional investors, StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility for the report’s contents only to the extent required by law and can be contacted at 6826 9988 for matters arising from the report. For all other recipients, to the extent permitted by applicable laws, StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. and its associated companies disclaim any responsibility or liability for loss or damage arising from the use of the information in the report. StoneX Financial Pte. StoneX Financial Pte. StoneX Financial Pte.
RBA cash rate at 4.6% ahead of expected hike on 5 Nov
The RBA cash rate was 4.6% ahead of its decision on 3 November 2026. The RBA’s anticipated interest‑rate hike is scheduled for Tuesday, 5 November 2026.
Retail sector shows strain as consumer spending eases
Retailers were signalling consumer strain ahead of the RBA decision, and major Australian retailers are showing weaker discretionary demand. Accelerating inflation increases the likelihood of another RBA rate hike, and major Australian retailers are showing weaker discretionary demand. Super Retail Group recorded a modest 0.2% rise in like‑for‑like sales, while BCF sales dropped 1.1% due to higher fuel prices, Macpac sales fell 11.7% because of milder weather and promotional timing, and Supercheap Auto grew 2.5%. Wesfarmers reported that Bunnings’ sales growth moderated, especially in commercial and seasonal categories, whereas Kmart and Officeworks maintained steadier performance. On Thursday the ASX 200 rose 0.5% with 118 stocks advancing and 74 declining; Financials gained 1.9% and Real Estate 1.8%, while Consumer Discretionary slipped 2.0% and Staples fell 1.8%.
Technical outlook: resistance at 9,000 and bullish EMA bias
Resistance is seen at the round number 9,000 with high‑volume nodes around 9,050, prompting caution for a potential swing high. Options positioning indicates 8,900 as a potential pivot, heavy call positioning around 8,925‑8,950 may slow the advance, while a sustained break would target 9,000 and 8,800 acts as significant support.
Falling volumes and open interest raise doubts on rally conviction
Futures trading volumes and open interest have been falling, raising doubts about the conviction behind the rally. Thursday’s retail sell‑off exposed growing weakness beneath the broader market strength. Friday’s average trading range over the past three months has been just 69 points.
US market pressure: Nasdaq 100 futures down and S&P 500 losses
Nasdaq 100 futures fell around 1% after disappointing results from major global technology companies raised AI‑related concerns.
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